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Short CV

Surjit S. Bhalla is a former part-time member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council. In addition, he serves as Chairperson for the Ministry of Commerce High Level Advisory Group on Trade; Economic Adviser to the Fifteenth Finance Commission,...

What Ails GDP Growth: Demonetization or High Interest Rates?

GDP Growth in India has slowed down to less than 7%, from the recent high level of 8.2% in 2015-16. It is widely believed that the demonetization experiment, announced by Prime Minister Modi on November 8, 2016, is responsible for...

A short note on the GDP back-series released by the National Statistical Commission

The Report’s conclusion of 9 % growth in UPA-I (2004/5-2008/9) maybe, in reality, close to 6 % per annum. More needs to be researched by all of us before jumping to conclusions.

The New Wealth of Nations reviewed in Dawn

"Bhalla's book is short and the arguments are expressed in simple, bold strokes. Sometimes his writing comes across a bit too breezy, but it is never superficial. He has a good sense of humour as well as knowledge of films...

The Little Revenue LTCG tax

The best tax policy for the taxman is one that maximizes tax revenue, and not one that maximizes his morality, or his employment, or his discretionary powers.

Budget 2018/19: Revolutions and Regression

With the government swimming in tax revenues, it makes little economic, or revenue, sense to reintroduce the long term capital gains tax after a hiatus of 14 years. Why?!

Smart Policies for Redistribution

India can, and must, reform its welfare system for a transforming India – more efficient redistribution is desirable for both ethical, and political, reasons.

Piketty has got it wrong

The implied savings estimates for India, derived from his calculations of income distribution, do not conform to any known model of savings behaviour

Tax-fruits of demonetisation

A direct outcome of demonetisation is a sharp increase in 2017-18 in tax buoyancy (revenues per unit of growth). Given this ‘unexpected’ result, will the knee-jerk critics of demonetisation please stand down?

World economy: Looking up

The world is on course for good growth, low inflation, lower taxation and increased income support for the needy. And yes – declining global inequality.

Gujarat 2017, lessons for all

This election was the first since slow economic growth was apparent and in the data. A slow economy, however, was not the only factor — after all, in Himachal Pradesh, the BJP won by a large margin.

Gujarat 2017- A turning point?

For whom will the Gujarat election toll – a confident BJP or a reviving Congress? The opinion polls suggest that Gujarat may not be a Rahul Gandhi moment.

Give accountability a chance

Here is a modest proposal to bring about much-needed accountability to the decisions of the RBI (and MPC): Let the RBI governor be questioned by Parliament twice a year

Making RBI accountable

The first year of operation of the Monetary Policy Committee has imposed considerable costs on the economy with very few benefits. What explains its decisions?

Dead parrots tell no tales

A forthcoming book explains that inflation, which haunted the world in the Seventies and the Eighties, is now only a windmill to be tilted at

Demonetisation and its contents

It was about both politics and economics. It is an acknowledged political success and early ‘returns’ indicate an economic success story as well.

Hungry for publicity

Surveys on hunger suggest that like poverty, it is more a relative, than absolute, concept. The best policy to increase nutrition is via sanitation and clean water.

Looking for honesty in the wrong places

We all have a choice — we can either debate evidence, or manufacture conclusions

Data vs gossip: Who should win?

The incomes of the poorest are rising at a faster pace than any time since January 2015. That could be the reason for Modi winning elections and why the growth slowdown will soon reverse.

It’s interest rates, stupid

Inflation is down by 700 bp since 2013, and policy rates have declined by 200bp — and you are still wondering why GDP growth is slow?

Madness in monetary policy

In India we have a monetary authority that admits to not understanding inflation — but persists in damaging an already weak economy because it does not understand it

Leave your ego at home

Average CPI inflation for eight months since September 2016 has been 3.7 per cent. How long are you going to wait and watch, MPC, before you admit that you were wrong in your assessment?

Battle of the elites

The old elite won’t give up their privileges easily. They will try to derail the structural transformation happening in India and object at every turn.

Just why are farmers rioting?

It is politics that best explains the phenomena of farmer riots amidst growing prosperity.

MPC — you are not in D-School any more

One logical way for the MPC to change course and lower rates is by being Keynesian at the June 7 meeting — the facts have changed, so we have changed our mind

The good, the ugly

Narendra Modi’s tenure thus far has brought about significant structural change in the economy. But the nation needs to be careful about false morality and cow vigilantism

RBI, enough of elevator economics

The inflation forecast is the most important aspect of the most crucial economic decision that the RBI makes — it needs to be more in tune with reality.The Indian economy has likely gone through a mega structural-break experience via demonetisation....

Cow vigilantism — or minority hunting?

PM Modi has nothing to gain and everything to lose by pursuing a divisive social agenda. He has to worry both about the enemy within, and the one outside, his development tent.

Case for an inter-meeting rate hike

A ‘rate hike in time is just fine’ is a wise RBI saying. With CPI inflation at near-historic lows, this must mean, according to the RBI law of mean reversion, that the future will bring high inflation. Hence, the urgent...

Seeking redemption in UP 2017

Many expect the Uttar Pradesh election to go the Bihar way — a big loss for BJP. However, the same math suggests the BJP is likely to win a comfortable majority in the state

Jaywalking at the RBI

RBI’s obstinate refusal to cut policy rates, and the moving of its policy stance from neutral to accommodative, is not based on economic logic. Both headline and core inflation data argue for a rate cut

Not business as usual

Budget 2017-18 is probably the most brilliant economic and political document since the path-breaking budget of 1991

Taxation — beware of the enemy within

A meaningful reduction in effective corporate tax rates to around 20 per cent is the correct follow-through to the logic, and pain, of demonetisation.

Taxing your way to popularity

The finance minister can cut everyone’s tax burden, even pay the poor, and be revenue neutral by cutting sops

Towards an Income Tax Revolution

The economy provides scope and demonetisation, the rationale for a flat income tax rate and a negative income tax for the poor and the needy.

Financing basic income for the bottom 50 per cent

A political and economic masterstroke would be for the Union budget to contain a basic income scheme for the bottom 50 percent — the poor and lower middle class

PLUs deafened by the Big Bang

Make no mistake — demonetisation is an important first step in what will be remembered as India’s biggest reform.

Deliver us from ideologues

Conservative intellectual rightness is no different from classic liberal thought, a definition that excludes the Left intellectuals, but includes the Right liberals

Demonetisation dispassionately demystified

Politicians shouting shrill about demonetisation augur well for the prospects of a new demonetised India. It indicates that the initiative is working

Black cash in India

Rumours of even a 1 percentage point decline in GDP growth for 2016/17 are vastly exaggerated, have no basis in logic or fact.

Sitting down for liberty

The constitution emphasises the power of the state, not the rights of individuals. Yet it is a lot more liberal than the interpretation of Supreme Court justices suggests.

Demonetisation’s short-term cost

Ideologies are determining politicians’ assessment of the costs of the policy. Amid the commotion, food prices have been stable

Big bang or big thud?

Demonetisation will have no benefits if the government does not follow up with tax reforms, reduce discretionary powers of bureaucrats and reform election laws

Anti-black money initiative could mean a policy reform bigger than GST

The recent anti-corruption, anti-black money drive of the BJP is being characterised by the same intellectually old people as being against the interests of the poor.

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