GDP Growth in India has slowed down to less than 7%, from the recent high level of 8.2% in 2015-16. It is widely believed that the demonetization experiment, announced by Prime Minister Modi on November 8, 2016, is responsible for the slowdown in investment and GDP growth. This chapter provides statistical tests to estimate the determinants of GDP decline – somewhat surprisingly, it is not demonetization, but the ultra-hawkish interest rate policy followed by the RBI, that seems to be responsible for growth slowdown.
Towards a Targeted Basic Income Policy for India
Most commentators have attributed the current agrarian crisis to two successive droughts and demonetization. While droughts do have an adverse...
Growth and Poverty in India – Myth and Reality
There is a raging controversy about whether poverty levels in India have increased in the nineties, a period co-incident with...
Population, Education, and Employment in India: 1983-2018
A background report on Employment in India for the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM)