This article takes as given the accuracy of opinion polls. It offers instead a suggestion towards improving forecasts of elections where traditional assumptions may not be valid. What is offered is a consistent, and ex-ante correction, to polling data. This...
This election was the first since slow economic growth was apparent and in the data. A slow economy, however, was not the only factor — after all, in Himachal Pradesh, the BJP won by a large margin.
For whom will the Gujarat election toll – a confident BJP or a reviving Congress? The opinion polls suggest that Gujarat may not be a Rahul Gandhi moment.
A ‘rate hike in time is just fine’ is a wise RBI saying. With CPI inflation at near-historic lows, this must mean, according to the RBI law of mean reversion, that the future will bring high inflation. Hence, the urgent...
Many expect the Uttar Pradesh election to go the Bihar way — a big loss for BJP. However, the same math suggests the BJP is likely to win a comfortable majority in the state