Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy in India

Abstract

There seems to be a consensus that the inflation targeting framework adopted in India in 2016 has been successful in taming inflation. A comprehensive analysis of inflation targeting should be based on the impact on inflation dynamics, expectations and implications for growth. We illustrate the strong downward time-trend in India’s inflation dynamics coinciding with the inflation targeting regime. Trend inflation levels in India and other emerging market economies also suggest a downward trajectory regardless of the adoption of inflation targeting. Therefore, it is difficult to conclusively establish that adoption of inflation targeting in India led to a moderation in inflation or anchoring of inflation expectations. On expectations, there is some evidence of anchored household expectations, however, this anchoring predates the formal adoption of inflation targeting. Long-term expectations in India have remained firmly anchored since early 2000s. In terms of growth, the high real interest rates policy followed during the initial years of inflation targeting to establish credibility of IT regime adversely affected India’s growth dynamics.

author bio

  • Surjit S. Bhalla | He serves as a Senior Advisor of ZyFin Research Private Limited. Prior to his current role, he has worked as a Proprietary Trader, Strategist, and Portfolio Manager at the World Bank, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Oxus Investments. FULL BIO
  • Karan Bhasin | Karan Bhasin is an economist and policy researcher, currently a Non-Resident Fellow at ORF America and a PhD candidate in Quantitative Economics at SUNY Albany. He teaches at Johns Hopkins University and has previously worked with institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and Government of India.
  • Prakash Loungani | Prakash Loungani is an economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he works on issues related to employment, inequality, and macroeconomic policy. He also teaches at Vanderbilt University and has previously taught at the University of Florida and the American University. His research and writing aim to bridge the gap between academic work and policy, and he is known for communicating complex economic issues in accessible language. Loungani has written extensively on topics such as the accuracy of economic forecasts, the costs of joblessness, and inclusive growth.

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