Labor Markets in India: Measurement in Times of Structural Change

Abstract

We analyze the evolution of India’s labor market, with a focus on female labor force participation (FLFPR) from 1983-84 to 2022-23. Utilizing both Indian and international databases that include unit-level surveys and time use data, we address issues of data quality, labor market definitions, and measurement challenges and make necessary adjustments for accuracy. Additionally, by applying a structural microeconometric model, we evaluate the roles of both the labor market and the household sector in female labor participation. Our findings indicate that India's labor market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by rising educational attainments and declining fertility rates. After appropriate adjustments to data and definitions, we obtain six key results: (a) no significant decline in FLFPR between 1999-00 and 2022-23; (b) FLFPR in 2022-23 is comparable to international standards; (c) India requires 7-9 million jobs annually over the next five years, contrary to the widely believed 10 million per year; (d) education shows a U-shaped relationship with FLFPR due to its non-linear relationship with earnings; (e) India’s gender wage gap is comparable to that of its peers; and (f) Indian women spend more time on child care, a crucial investment for childhood skill development, than women in OECD countries. These findings challenge assumptions of a sharp decline in FLFPR, significantly lower FLFPR compared to other countries, and slow job creation during 1999-00 to 2022-23.

author bio

  • Surjit S. Bhalla | He serves as a Senior Advisor of ZyFin Research Private Limited. Prior to his current role, he has worked as a Proprietary Trader, Strategist, and Portfolio Manager at the World Bank, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Oxus Investments. FULL BIO
  • Karan Bhasin | Karan Bhasin is an economist and policy researcher, currently a Non-Resident Fellow at ORF America and a PhD candidate in Quantitative Economics at SUNY Albany. He teaches at Johns Hopkins University and has previously worked with institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and Government of India.
  • Tirthatanmoy Das | Tirthatanmoy Das is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. His research lies at the intersection of labor economics, applied microeconomics, and public policy, with a focus on topics such as immigration, inequality, and education. He has published in leading academic journals and his work often combines rigorous empirical analysis with policy relevance. Prior to joining UNLV, he earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Riverside.

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