Macro Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting

Abstract

We examine the impact of formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation, growth and anchoring of inflation expectations in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Our paper reports several findings relevant to assessing the success of IT regimes. We find that while the early adopters of IT (pre-2000) all saw declines in inflation rates following adoption, IT adopters since then have enjoyed such success in only about half the cases. Since there is not much difference, on average, between IT and non-IT countries in mean inflation, inflation volatility and the extent of inflation anchoring, it is not easy to sort out what role IT has played in ensuring good outcomes; in particular, we cannot rule out the possibility that the success of IT may be due to ‘regression to the mean’. Our country-level analysis—using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to compare outcomes in IT countries to a synthetic cohort—shows that IT adoption delivers significant inflation gains in about a third of the cases. At the same time, we also find limited support for the concern that adoption of IT systematically leads to poorer growth outcomes. At a time when central banks are struggling to keep inflation in check, our results suggest that the belief that IT adoption will be sufficient to achieve this goal cannot be taken for granted.

author bio

  • Surjit S. Bhalla | He serves as a Senior Advisor of ZyFin Research Private Limited. Prior to his current role, he has worked as a Proprietary Trader, Strategist, and Portfolio Manager at the World Bank, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Oxus Investments. FULL BIO
  • Karan Bhasin | Karan Bhasin is an economist and policy researcher, currently a Non-Resident Fellow at ORF America and a PhD candidate in Quantitative Economics at SUNY Albany. He teaches at Johns Hopkins University and has previously worked with institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and Government of India.
  • Prakash Loungani | Prakash Loungani is an economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he works on issues related to employment, inequality, and macroeconomic policy. He also teaches at Vanderbilt University and has previously taught at the University of Florida and the American University. His research and writing aim to bridge the gap between academic work and policy, and he is known for communicating complex economic issues in accessible language. Loungani has written extensively on topics such as the accuracy of economic forecasts, the costs of joblessness, and inclusive growth.

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